Keepin’ ‘em honest.

Okay, some of you may have seen my blog entry on the “free” Nintendo Wii that I’m trying to earn.

I’m wondering if I’ll actually get the ten signups I need to earn this thing, so I’m sorta chronicling this thing here in my weblog, just to keep it in the eye of the public. I’ve always had doubts about things like this — wondering if people ever get their free doohickey or thingamabob from these companies offering them.

Part of me says that it could happen:

For example, the company offers a given object, and requires three offers to be completed, then requires five referrals, which also have to do the same.
One hundred people get in on the ground level, and aren’t referrals of each other.
Twenty-five of them complete their offers, and get their five referrals each.
The other seventy-five end up at various states along the road to completion, but never finish.
However, all of the other seventy-five on the first tier, for this argument’s sake, get one referral and two completed offers.
All 200 people on the second tier refer users and complete their offers, with 50% getting the five referrals (miracle numbers, I know). The rest on the second tier get three referrals, but also complete their offers.

The company responsible, therefore, rakes in money in a big way.
Let’s assume that each offer gets this company $5.
Let’s also just walk the completed branch for a moment.
$5 * 25 = $125. $125 * 3 = $375. First tier’s completions is worth $375, as a result.
$5 * 125 = $500. $500 * 3 = $1500. On the second tier, the initial group of people brought in by tier one is a total of 125 people. Each of them, multiplied by the $5 that goes to the company doing this is $500. Multiply that by the number of completes needed, and gained, this becomes $1500.

If that chain were to go out a step further, assuming that on the first branch, everyone gets their five referrals…
$5 * 500 = $2500. $2500 * 3 = $7500.
Another step out?
$5 * 2500 = $12,500. $12,500 * 3 = $37,500.

These companies are counting on the ‘on demand’ nature of us Americans to give up before we finish, though. This is how they make their money. If I had gone though, and iterated the OTHER tree, assuming a 66% completion all the way through, you’d see where the extra money comes in to them. This is how they cover their costs, pay their employees, and get the items they’re giving to you for ‘free’.

I don’t want to be that statistic, giving up my money for something, and not getting what I want in exchange.

Do me a favor.

If you don’t want to do it yourself, then pass my referral link off to a friend who would do it.
I want to be able to say at beginning of December, “Thank you to every single one of you who signed up and took a shot at it. I am finally caught up with the times, and have a modern gaming system.”

Back to my Dreamcast for now.